We have looked at how bees rear queens here, and how this can lead to swarming if we do not control it. In summary, it is a natural part of bee biology that bees will produce swarms.
This really depends on a number of factors. We need to think first about the logistics of swarming. A swarm consists of anywhere from 3000 bees to 70 000 bees if the entire hive absconds.
Bees will swarm at a time of day when it is warm enough for them to fly. At temperatures below 55°F bees struggle to fly hence it is safe to say they will not swarm at this temperature
In general, as the season moves from winter, to spring to summer the time of day the bees will swarm tends to get earlier and earlier as the days become longer
The short answer is no. Generally no. However, bees are a pain in the neck, and any generalization about what they do, and how they do it will be proven wrong occasionally.
A normal swarm occurs due to the hive increasing in population. An emergency swarm occurs when bees are forced to leave a hive due to it being burnt flooded/destroyed.
As a beekeeper, the emergency swarm is much easier to capture and to re-hive. The bees are not in the mood to be flying anywhere. Give them a new hive with a frame of brood and a few combs of pollen.